Midwest Climate Hub: Continued Dry Conditions for Fall

Today’s guest post is by Dr. Dennis Todey, USDA Midwest Climate Hub Director, with timely climate information for harvest 2017.

The latter part of summer presented a marked change from early summer. Cooler than average weather predominated over Iowa and the eastern Midwest since late July. This is sharp contrast to the June warmth and warm late winter/early spring. These conditions and new outlooks present some different issues for Iowa concerning crop development and moisture as we enter the fall.

Crop Development

The warm early season exacerbated the dry early season in much of Iowa leading to increased drought conditions. The warm temperatures also helped push crop development that had been slowed because of some delayed planting and cool late spring temperatures. The recent coolness has been a benefit for corn and beans allowing some better grain fill. However, the lack of Growing Degree Days is a problem for corn development, which is as much as 2-3 weeks behind in places in the state. The first fall freeze will need to hold off until near average or later to alleviate potential freeze issues on crops.

Rainfall/Drought

Conditions in parts of the state have flipped from early to late summer. Much drier than average conditions predominated much of the south to northwest parts of Iowa while the northeast to east central were moist to wet. Over the last 30 days rainfall has helped ease drought conditions in northwest Iowa while the eastern part of the state has dried showing changes in the US Drought Monitor. Most of the southern part of the state is still in some level of drought.

Todey Blog 9-2017Continued Dry Conditions

Dry conditions are likely to continue to affect much of the state into the fall given the current US Drought Monitor status. This is a positive for fall agricultural field work and completion of construction in the state because of the reduced chances for muddy conditions. But for dry areas impacted by drought, this is not good news (largely central and southern Iowa). Soil moisture recharge in these areas needs to begin in the fall to replenish soil moisture.

Cooler than average temperatures are still likely to impact the state for the balance of September. This will continue to slow crop development and increase the risk of freezing conditions earlier than hoped for many crops. Exact freeze dates will continue to be monitored.

Early Winter Outlook

Winter outlooks are largely impacted by having an El Niño or La Niña. Neither is likely to be affecting the winter outlook. Thus, our ability to say much for the winter is limited. The overall trend over recent years has been toward warmer winters. Thus, the outlook for the winter would lean a little more likely to be warmer. Precipitation chances are largely unknown at this point.

Summer Precipitation in Iowa? Still A Work in Progress

Today’s guest post is by Dr. Dennis Todey, USDA Midwest Climate Hub Director, with timely climate information for crop year 2017.

The spring and early summer in Iowa has been one of large opposing extremes from warm February to cool in early May to near record heat in early June.  Precipitation has also been excessive at times, but much less extreme than the wetness of the eastern Corn Belt and dryness of the northern plains so far this spring.

Crop planting progress in Iowa was slightly delayed because of cooler and wetter conditions during planting.  The early season warmth slowed and very cool early May conditions took over with soil temperatures falling below the critical 50 F level for development for several days.  After early May, dry conditions have been prevalent with most of the state below average precipitation accumulation over the last 30 days into early June. The dryness was beneficial in allowing planting to progress more readily and crops to develop. Rains returned in mid-June easing the dryness somewhat.

Precip dots

Drought in the Northern Plains and near 100 F heat in mid-June has created some concern about drought/heat conditions impacting crop condition.  At this point the extreme heat will have only a limited impact on crop yield.  The additional heat will be beneficial (to a certain extent) in helping overcome delayed crop development.

A Look Ahead

Looking ahead to the rest of the growing season is a bit difficult because summer precipitation projections are limited.  At this point, it doesn’t seem like the hot and dry of early June will stick around for the whole summer. There are some hints of hotter and drier conditions returning in July in Iowa and more of the Midwest.  However, current projections would not carry those into August.  Both July and August conditions are only slightly better than 50-50 chance of being accurate. Current NOAA outlooks indicate warmer than average temperatures more likely in July and July – August.  The 90 day outlooks have a small chance of above average temperatures in far northwest Iowa.

temp outlook 6-2017

The overall impact in Iowa and the Corn Belt is still developing.  The late planting of the eastern Corn Belt will be somewhat overcome by the current warm temperatures.  The northwest Corn Belt may see some problems with heat and drought because of the early June developing drought conditions.  Iowa is still a work in progress.  If the July heat does occur, some yield loss will be likely.  Overall yields in the Corn Belt have likely been trimmed because of the variety of problems.

Corn GDD Tracking

For anyone growing corn with questions where they are in GDD development, there is a tool from a recently-completed USDA NIFA-funded project that allows producers to check their crop progress daily based on Growing Degree Day accumulation.  The Corn GDD Tool allows a producer to pick their location, corn maturity and planting date. After choosing these the tool creates a plot of GDDs compared to average up to the previous day, a projection for the growing season GDD accumulation to tasseling and freeze date and comparison to selected analog years.  This tool is unique in its local data accumulation and projection of GDD accumulation through the year.

 

Iowa Climate Outlook for Spring: Wetter in the North; Drier in Southeast

Today’s guest post is by Dr. Dennis Todey, USDA Midwest Climate Hub Director, with timely climate information as we prepare for crop year 2017.

Planting season is quickly approaching, with field prep work and crop insurance dates for corn only days away.  Initial season concerns include the early spring progression from late winter warmth and its impact on alfalfa and soil N levels. The warm and wet conditions allow soil nitrogen to convert to nitrate, which can be easily lost. A late spring nitrate test would help determine if additional nitrogen is needed to meet crop demands.

As crop year 2017 begins, key factors to consider include:

Current Soil Conditions

Background precipitation issues for Iowa differ for northern versus southern Iowa.  Heavier rain fell across northern Iowa last fall producing wetter harvest conditions.  Some soil wetness issues are likely to carry over into the spring.  In contrast chunks of southern Iowa were much drier – not only in the fall but through the summer.  National soil moisture models currently support this difference in soil conditions indicating overall wetter north and drier in the far southeast.

Precipitation Outlook

While several current storms have produced more rain in southern Iowa, the focus on precipitation should again switch to northern Iowa.  The current 30 day April outlook and spring (April-June) outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has better chances for above average precipitation in northern Iowa.  Combining this rainfall potential with the carry-over wetness from the fall creates the highest risk for wetter planting conditions across the north.Precip Outlook 2017

Growing Season Outlook

Looking ahead to the rest of the growing season utilizes a few tools including the status of El Niño conditions and computer-based outlooks.  The current El Niño situation is neutral, but hinting toward El Niño conditions by late summer.  The switch to El Niño would reduce the risk of a poor growing season, but seems unlikely to start in time to affect the growing season.  The progress will be monitored through the season.

Drought Risk

Computer outlooks lean toward less chance of dry conditions across most of the state.  Thus, the overall drought risk seems fairly small at this point.  It should be noted that longer range precipitation outlooks are more difficult to assess.

Temperature Outlook

Temperature outlooks Iowa and the whole Midwest are likely warmer than average.  This is based mostly on recent trends of warmth in the summer, which has been driven by warmer overnight temperatures.  The risk of excessively high day temperatures seems lower at this point. 2017 Temp Outlook

Severe Weather Risk

Overall storminess would likely be increased along with more precipitation.  But the chances of severe weather currently are similar to climatology at this point.